In the dynamic realm of FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) markets, businesses constantly face critical decisions that can make or break their success. Key strategic questions arise, such as:
Traditionally, choice modelling has been the go-to method for answering these crucial questions. However, this approach falls short when applied to dynamic FMCG markets.
To illustrate this dynamic market problem, consider the in-market sales of a supermarket brand in an ambient drink category over a 26-week period. The data reveals that:
The data masks a critical factor: In Week 22, the brand faced a deep promotion from its main competitor. This interaction significantly reduced the promotional effectiveness in that specific week.
The impact of pricing activity is contingent on the unique dynamics unfolding in each individual week. This renders FMCG markets too complex to be accurately represented by simple price elasticity curves.
To address the limitations of traditional choice modelling in FMCG markets, Nature has developed a revolutionary approach that incorporates the dimension of time into choice modelling. Through a Monte Carlo overlay, our choice model results are extended to represent a full promotional calendar (encompassing 52 individual weeks).
This approach ensures a stable projection of volume and value for each brand/product, accounting for the actual promotional calendar and the impact of promotional interactions between brands.
Nature's groundbreaking Monte Carlo overlay approach represents a significant leap forward in the field of marketing analytics. Our work utilising this methodology has gained recognition at The Research Society's Awards, a testament to its potential to revolutionise FMCG decision-making.
Key achievements:
Research Effectiveness Awards 2023:
Research Effectiveness Awards 2021:
To gain further insights on this approach, leave your details below to request access to our comprehensive whitepaper, which includes detailed explanations of the methodology, along with case studies showcasing the application of the Monte Carlo approach to choice modelling.
In the dynamic world of FMCG markets, Nature's groundbreaking approach to choice modelling empowers businesses to make informed decisions that drive growth and profitability.
Work on Nature’s Monte Carlo overlay has been developed by Nature Senior Partner Peter Stuchbery and Partner Emma Tommasini.
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